On ABC Environment last week, we ran an
opinion piece by Michael Mann - the guy who compiled the famous '
hockey stick' graph showing global temperatures leaping up in recent years.
Our op-ed provoked a large number of comments doubting the evidence for climate change.
Yet
among those who deny that climate change is real, there appears to have
been a palpable shift away from a refusal to accept the climate is
warming and towards those who doubt the severity of the damage.
It's
a subtle but important shift, and suggests that holding the view that
climate change is not occurring is intellectually untenable in the
long-term.
American physicist Richard Muller is one climate sceptic who has recently changed his mind after reviewing the evidence.
Muller crunched a bunch of numbers to do with global temperatures and
announced in
the New York Times that he is a "converted sceptic". It was this
opinion piece in arguably the world's most influential paper that set
tongues wagging about climate change all over again.
Muller had previously been claimed by those unconvinced by the science as one of their own, because he
questioned the validity of Mann's 'hockey stick' graph, used by Al Gore in his film An Inconvenient Truth.
The
disagreement between Mann and Muller, a rather arcane arm wrestle over
data methodology, was used as evidence that the science was not, in
fact, settled. It was fuel for thousands of climate sceptic blogs the
world over.
Muller had so many concerns over the raw data and the
tidied-up data that he just wasn't convinced the world was experiencing
unprecedented warming. However, in October last year, Muller announced
the findings of his own research in the Wall Street Journal. "Global
warming is real," he
wrote.
At
the time, climate science circles welcomed another scientist into the
ranks of those convinced by the evidence. But Muller was still not
entirely sure what had caused this warming. "How much of the warming is
due to humans and what will be the likely effects? We made no
independent assessment of that," he said.
Nearly a year later, he is convinced: "I'm now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause," he wrote in the NYT.
He has now written up his findings and submitted them to the academic Journal of Geophysical Research
- Atmospheres.
Bjorn
Lomborg is another high-profile climate sceptic who changed his mind
after reviewing the evidence. He now believes climate change is real,
but that it won't be the calamity predicted by some. Other converts
include conservative radio hosts, ex-politicians, current politicians
(Tony "absolute crap" Abbott), journalists and publishers. See
here and
here.
The
persuasion of a scientist by evidence that the globe is warming and
humans are to blame is not, in itself, particularly remarkable. It is,
after all, what scientists do best: look at evidence gathered for a
particular hypothesis and try to pick holes in it. Muller, in this case,
found that he could not find holes big enough to sink the hypothesis.
The
fact that Muller's confession reinvigorated the climate conversation is
not remarkable either: those who are convinced by the evidence are
frustrated by the sluggish pace of action to combat climate change and
therefore keen to re-emphasise the urgency; and those who are
unconvinced by the evidence are always keen to hold up action because
they view it as unnecessary and potentially damaging to our way of life.
What is interesting is the subtle shift in attitudes to Muller's pronouncement.
There
are varied views in relation to climate science. There are those who
unquestioningly accept what scientists from reputable organisations say,
without looking into the evidence themselves. Most Australians would
fall into that category.
Then there are the folks who do a bit of digging and come to the conclusion that the scientists are right.
Then there are the diggers who come to a separate conclusion.
Some of them refuse to believe temperatures are showing increases: the Galileo Movement states
this on its website.
Some acknowledge the increase but doubt the role of carbon dioxide: Australian blogger
Jo Nova is on the record as doubting the role of CO2.
Some accept the role of CO2 but doubt humans' contribution -
Alan Jones is
a notable example, frothing to Professor David Karoly that the human
contribution of an additional 3 per cent of carbon dioxide can't
possibly have an effect.
Some say it's getting warmer, and that
CO2 is the cause, and that humans add to the CO2, but they think the
predictions of global ecosystem collapse are a bit overblown.
Over
time, it seems that the weight of evidence is pushing those who
disbelieve climate science further and further towards the view of the
majority of researchers working in the area. Few so-called climate
sceptics now doubt that humans play a role; fewer still doubt that
temperatures are rising.
The roadblocks that have slowed or prevented action to reduce the effects of climate change are being smoothed.
While
there will always be hold-outs who cling to their own beliefs despite
the evidence, the trend away from complete denial can only be positive
news for those on the road to addressing climate change.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-08-15/phillips-climate-sceptic-reborn-a-believer/4199130