The Stern Review - summary

(orig. posted 10 Nov 2006)

The Stern review is the report that seems to have gotten the ball
rolling on fixing global warming.

Here are the key points of the review written by the former chief economist of the World Bank.

TEMPERATURE

Carbon emissions have already pushed up global temperatures by half a degree Celsius

If no action is taken on emissions, there is more than a 75% chance of global temperatures rising between two and three degrees Celsius over the next 50 years

There is a 50% chance that average global temperatures could rise by five degrees Celsius

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT

Melting glaciers will increase flood risk

Crop yields will decline, particularly in Africa

Rising sea levels could leave 200 million people permanently displaced

Up to 40% of species could face extinction

There will be more examples of extreme weather patterns

ECONOMIC IMPACT

Extreme weather could reduce global gross domestic product (GDP) by up to 1%

A two to three degrees Celsius rise in temperatures could reduce global economic output by 3%

If temperatures rise by five degrees Celsius, up to 10% of global output could be lost. The poorest countries would lose more than 10% of their output

In the worst case scenario global consumption per head would fall 20%

To stabilise at manageable levels, emissions would need to stabilise in the next 20 years and fall between 1% and 3% after that. This would cost 1% of GDP

OPTIONS FOR CHANGE

Reduce consumer demand for heavily polluting goods and services

Make global energy supply more efficient

Act on non-energy emissions - preventing further deforestation would go a long way towards alleviating this source of carbon emissions

Promote cleaner energy and transport technology, with non-fossil fuels accounting for 60% of energy output by 2050

GOVERNMENT RESPONSE

Create a global market for carbon pricing

Extend the European Emissions Trading Scheme (EETS) globally, bringing in countries such as the US, India and China

Set new target for EETS to reduce carbon emissions by 30% by 2020 and 60% by 2050

Pass a bill to enshrine carbon reduction targets and create a new independent body to monitor progress

Create a new commission to spearhead British company investment in green technology, with the aim of creating 100,000 new jobs

Former US vice-president Al Gore will advise the government on the issue

Work with the World Bank and other financial institutions to create a $20bn fund to help poor countries adjust to climate change challenges

Work with Brazil, Papua New Guinea and Costa Rica to promote sustainable forestry and prevent deforestation